Moderator: Dale Taylor, moderator
52 Attendees
The topic of this meeting is a presentation on Internet Demographics by Dana Simmons as surveyed by his company, FindSVP.
ANNOUNCEMENTS:
Dale announced that the steering committee chose about eight good topics for the next years meetings. The 2/28 meeting will be on Cable TV for the public and telecommunications.
Nancy Oster announced the usual update requirements and the update of the noster@silcom.com) if you wish to be listed.
Jon Ballard announced the continuing availability of the telecommunity report for $5.00.
Cissy Ross announced that the New Press will soon have a special section on telecommunications and relevant areas to be published on Sunday, March 10. She has a questionnaire which will help them to screen participants.
Dave Oster announced the usual request for funds. Also, the Santa Barbara County Economic Development Commission meeting this Friday.
Michael Masterson announced a 2/10 Internet seminar at Holiday Inn from Silicon Beach
------------------------
Dana Simmons, Managing Director of the Emerging Technology Research Group of FIND/SVP, has been following Internet demographics since the 70s:
The presentation was in the form of a Power Point slide show. Since a lot of statistics and measurements were displayed, the will be shown here in tabular form. Some of the numbers are eyeball estimates, especially those where the actual number or value is not shown with the graph. Spoken commentary and explanations follow the tabular listings. Please contact me with any corrections:
Slide 1:
"Internet Realities", new findings from the American Internet User Survey. Their reports are about consumer.
This survey had 1000 respondents and took place in December1995. There were 25000 phone calls. The In-depth interviews had 155 questions and took about 25 minutes.. The criteria for inclusion was: At least 1 net application besides e-mail in use. Only adults 18 or older who use the Internet outside the home or at home, for work-related, personal or educational current use,. were qualified. (The audience noted that this doesn't exclude anyone-- it includes all consumers over 18.)
Slide 2:
US digital consumer context bar graph showing increases in IT usage. PCs 33-36% of American households 1994-1995 CD-ROM 6-19% (Data, not music)
Modems 14-18%
OnLine Services 5-8%
Dana noted that CD-ROM usage is quietly but quickly growing to become very important. He also noted that the increase in PC purchases is shrinking--the purchase is too much of the discretionary income for most Americans. He looked at a subset of data across California (112 respondents) and medium-small communities like the South Coast. 50% of the respondents had PCs , 28% had CD-ROMs, 31% had modems, and 14% had OnLine services.
Slide 3:
US Internet user base bar graph showing estimated numbers US wide:
All internet users: 9.5 million
Adult users: 8.4 million
E-Mail users: 8.2 million
Web Users: 7.5 million
A lot of the users are using the Internet through commercial online services or also have both kinds of service. The fact that there are about 10M commercial on-line users doesn't in any way add to the ~10M internet users. The 10 M users is an estimate of the total. The survey has to be random and this one was. It can therefore be projected to the US population with phones. They got about 10,000 answering machine/fax machines.
Slide 4:
Fast growth is confirmed--graph over the years 1992 through 1995 ("m"=million):
E-mail 1m in 1992, 1.8m in 1993, 3.3m in 1994, 7.0m in 1995 WWW ~0m in 1992, 0.5m in 1993, 2m in 1994, 6.5m in 1995 Usenet 0.3m in 1992, 0.6m in 1993, 1.2m in 1994, 3m in 1995
E-mail is the killer app. Entertainment is coming, but not there yet. The WWW seems to be growing faster. Communications activity still outpaces info search and entertainment.
Slide 5:
Personal Use Outpaces Business Use graph showing internet usage (percentage of respondents):
Both Business and Personal 60%
Primarily Personal 30%
Exclusively Personal 19%
Primarily Business 19
Exclusively Business
Slide 6:
Home Access Outpaces Work graph showing one usage superimposed on the other using a bar graph:
Home access 69% with 39% using it exclusively at home Work access 47% with 20% using it exclusively at work School access 21% with 9% using is exclusively at school
Slide 7:
OnLine Services Lead the Net Access Market bar graph showing the prevalence of OnLine services in Internet access:
OnLine Services accounted for 46% of the access AOL accounted for 30%
Workplace accounted for 28%
Academic accounted for 27%
ISPs accounted for 25%
CompuServe accounted for 11%
Prodigy accounted for 9%
MSN accounted for 2%
For California communities like the South Coast, the numbers are 40,27,29,18,31,13,6, and 1% in the order above. AOL's large market share seems to be a result of its perception as a safe, easy, constrained network access environment. (The Disneyland effect.)
Slide 8:
Web User Reality pie chart showing number of in-depth WWW site visits:
50-99 web sites--13%
100+ web sites--23%
10-49 web sites--35%
<10 web sites--29%
Most people don't remember the web sites they visit nor do they explore them. More than 60% have only looked at 50 or fewer web sites. Most people have not looked a that many sites.
Slide 9:
Internet use displaces TV and Telephone as entertainment or as a pastime. This indicates loss of interest/time in a negative percentage and gains in interest:
TV -32% +4%
Long Distance Calls -25%, +11
Videos -15%, +5%
Magazines -13%, +11%
Newspapers -12%, +9%
Radio -10%, +5%
The interpretation of the data: When asked, 32% of the respondents said their use of the Internet decreased their time watching TV and 4% of those asked said it increased the time they watched TV. What is the main benefit of the Internet? Communication which is otherwise not possible. Magazines and newspapers showed the smallest net loss in interest.
Slide 10:
"The Internet has a great future as-----" graph of user opinion:
Info Access 70%
Communications 68%
Education 57%
Advertising and marketing 39%
Entertainment 35%
Buying and Selling 30%
Community Service 27%
Dana's group was surprised that Advertising, Marketing, Buying and Selling were as large as they were. The percentages for communities like the South Coast were: 82, 75, 56, 46, 40, 33, 33. respectively
Slide 11:
Other highlights:
--Distinct subcultures: under 30 (will pay $25, longer sessions, 14 sites visited), 30-49($46,,10 sites), 50+($25, shorter sessions, 8 sites ) --Nearly half have retrieved product info --Problems with Speed, Navigation, and finding info
Slide 12:
Preliminary conclusions:
--Growth limited by technology--speed, congestion, need for phone --A relationship medium, not a mass medium-- 2 way --more like an 800 number than TV.-- larger impact on telecommunications provider revenues
--Communication, Community, and Information Control
Slides 13------:
9 predictions for 1996 (it turned out to be 8) --Internet will remain a growing community, but not a marketplace for the foreseeable future (1996)
--More people will have a "digital experience" with CD ROM than the Internet (and will do so because of its discrete, book-like nature) --Shopping won't be a big factor in 1996, but home banking will begin to catch on.
--Electronic learning at home will increasingly supplement school education. (work followed by learning followed by play market drivers order.)
--Internet user frustration with ISPs will prove to be a boon for the big 4 on-line services.
--Having a college education, not income, will play the greatest role in the consumer move to Cyberspace. At the same time, PC prices will slow the home information evolution (unless the $500 network box concept takes off).
--Cyberworld growth obstacles will not be resolved-- security, viruses, porn, etc.
--Cost cutting benefits and ease of use will force the government to increase its commitment to on-line communications.
Dana's WWW site is http://etrg.findsvp.com
His e-mail address is dsimmons@findsvp.com
Next SCTA meeting is Wednesday, February 28, 1996
Return to Minutes Index
Go to SCTA Home Page